𝗦𝗼 𝗶𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀..

According to recent assessments from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a serious rift is emerging between the Russian Central Bank and the Kremlin, signaling a deeper deterioration in Russia’s wartime economic stability.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina is under mounting political pressure following the launch of an audit by the Russian Federation Council Accounts Chamber. Though positioned as a review of monetary policy from 2022 to 2024, the audit appears to be a calculated move by Kremlin-aligned forces and business lobbyists to undermine Nabiullina and force a reduction in Russia’s key interest rate, currently at 21 percent—the highest since 2003.

Despite the Central Bank’s efforts to curb inflation, official figures claiming a 10.1 percent rate appear far removed from reality. 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝟮𝟬 𝘁𝗼 𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁, driven by wartime spending, labor shortages, and rising logistics and energy costs. The Central Bank has been pressured to hold rates steady, even as inflation and corporate insolvency risks climb.

President Vladimir Putin, facing growing discontent from business elites, has begun shifting blame onto Nabiullina to deflect attention from the Kremlin’s role in the crisis. By portraying her as the obstacle to growth, the Kremlin aims to protect its own image while eroding the independence of the very institution tasked with stabilizing the economy.

This political interference comes at a critical time. Russian companies are already buckling under financial strain, with some industries reportedly using two-thirds of their pre-tax profits just to service debt. Manufacturing, energy, and coal sectors are facing steep profit declines, and bankruptcy warnings are growing louder.

𝘐𝘧 𝘯𝘰 𝘨𝘢𝘮𝘦-𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘤𝘤𝘶𝘳, Russia is expected to slide deeper into a financial crisis as internal economic pressures continue to build. The Central Bank's limited autonomy, persistent inflation far beyond official figures, and rising corporate debt will likely result in widespread bankruptcies, diminished industrial output, and eroding public trust in financial institutions. With political interference stifling effective monetary policy, the Kremlin may find itself unable to contain a slow but accelerating economic unraveling.

The crisis is no longer looming.
It has begun.